I missed this in the familial fog between Christmas and New Year, but last week Paul Krugman in the New York Times had a sobering note about inflation in the third century. He has a point worth remembering - that there is an awful lot of speculation from comparatively little evidence:
Thus, they’ll tell us to ignore the extensive evidence from the past century that fiat currencies needn’t lead to runaway inflation — instead, look at how currency debasement led to the fall of Rome!
Or, maybe, how the fall of Rome led to currency debasement?
The thing is, we have no data and not even that much informal evidence on the economy of ancient Rome. We do have informed speculation.